Guangzhou (JLC), February 6, 2026--China's fossil energy consumption is projected to fall below 75% by 2030 while the non-fossil energy consumption will rise to around 25%, xinhuanet said on February 4, 2026.
The consumption shift happens amid China's strategic carbon peaking and neutrality decision in response to the climate change, by accelerating the structural adjustment in the energy sector, and promoting the green transformation of economy and society. Especially, the 15th Five-Year Plan period (2026-2030) is the final stage for achieving the carbon peaking goal. The Proposal of the Central Committee of the Communist Party of China on Formulating the 15th Five-Year Plan for National Economic and Social Development also states "pushing for the peaking consumption of coal and oil."
Specifically, China's coal consumption is expected to peak around 2027 before hitting a plateau, with growing consumption in the power and chemical industries versus a flat to down trend in the steel, building materials and residential sectors. While the consumption of refined oil serving as fuel has already peaked, that of oil serving as feedstock in the petrochemical fields will maintain a certain growth, with the total oil consumption forecast to peak around 2026.
Going forward, China will intensify the clean and efficient utilization of fossil energy, for example, by accelerating the efforts for energy saving and carbon reduction, flexibility improvement as well as heat supply renovation of the in-service coal-fired power units.
China will push forward the vigorous development of non-fossil energy by speeding up the construction of clean energy bases for wind power, photovoltaic power, hydropower, and coastal nuclear power; developing new energy such as biogas, biodiesel, sustainable aviation fuel, green methanol (ammonia), geothermal energy and marine energy in light of local conditions; and advancing the full-chain development throughout the hydrogen energy production, storage, transportation and utilization, aiming to raise the non-fossil energy consumption to around 25% by 2030.
China will carry out strengthened guidance on the capacity control, for instance, through coordinated efforts to "reduce refined oil product output, increase chemical product output, and improve the quality" in the petroleum industry, and through orchestrated arrangement of the phasing out of old coal capacity with the addition of new capacity, xinhuanet listed.
